Expectations
In the first
half of 1999,
George W. Bush raised $36 million, he consistently ran far ahead of the
Republican field in polls, he racked up endorsements, and he received
extraordinary
media coverage. So much for the national picture; the question
was
would it play in Iowa where grassroots organizing is required.
Given his
strong position,
Bush's participation in the Ames straw poll was not a foregone
conclusion,
but his Iowa campaign advised him not to skip the event.
Luke Roth,
executive director
of Bush's Iowa campaign, set the bar high by stating a specific goal of
turning out 5,000 supporters at Ames. (By comparison, in 1996 the
Dole and Gramm campaigns had each gained 2582 votes, and in that
contest
out-of-staters were allowed to vote). Bush's competitors charged he was
attempting to buy the election; one rumor floated in early June had it
that the campaign had offered to buy all the straw poll tickets!
Ames would
mark the first
time Bush shared the stage with other presidential hopefuls since the
Midwest
Leadership Conference in Indianapolis in August 1997; his performance
in
that event was deemed by most observers to be uninspired.
Bush made his
first visit
to Iowa on June 12, 1999, while other candidates had been plying the
state
for years. By the eve of the straw poll Bush had participated in 27 events
in Iowa on 9 days; by comparison some of his competitors had spent 27 days
or more in the state in 1999 alone.
(August 13,1999)
A front porch
picnic in Indianola.
Outcome:
First--7,418
Votes (31.3%)
Bush secured a
comfortable
win, gaining a record number of votes, surpassing the 5,000 vote goal
set
by his Iowa campaign, and finishing well ahead of the nearest
challenger
Steve Forbes. At the same time, Forbes and other competitors were
quick to point out that almost seven in ten of those who voted opted
for
a candidate other than Bush. Spokesperson Karen Hughes stated, "I
think that's the way of people who did not win the straw poll to try to
explain why they did not win the straw poll."
Hughes said
the campaign
had slightly exceeded its target spending level of $750,000: "We ended
up spending a little more today to buy extra tickets; we had factored
in
I think about 5,000 tickets and we ended up buying more than
that."
The final total was about $825,000 including spending on the day of the
poll.
After the
results were
announced Bush spokeperson Karen Hughes summed them up in a media
availability
on the floor of the Coliseum:
"Governor
Bush exceeded all
expectations and shattered the records, winning more than three times
as
many votes as had ever been won by any winner of the Iowa straw
poll.
It was just a great night. We know it's only the beginning but
this
was a fabulous way to jump start our organization for when it counts
which
is the caucuses in late January."
Bush's
statement:
August 14,
1999
Governor Bush
Thanks Iowans
for Straw Poll Victory!
"Thank
you very
much. Thank you. Laura and I thank you from the bottom of our hearts.
We
want to thank our organization in Iowa, our hundreds of volunteers and
all the Iowans that came out to vote for me today. Today, we shattered
every record for the Ames Straw Poll. We met our expectations and we
won
this straw poll the Iowa way.
"Two months
ago, when my
Iowa supporters convinced me to participate in this straw poll, some
pundits
said I had nothing to gain and potentially a lot to lose. Well thanks
to
you, we gained a lot. We have more than accomplished what we set out to
do. We jump-started our grassroots organization for the main event, the
Iowa caucuses. Today was also a great day for the Republican Party of
Iowa.
There is a new energy in the state, there’s a new enthusiasm in this
state.
And this new energy will help Republicans take back the White House in
the year 2000.
"I want to
congratulate my
fellow candidates and their organizations that worked very hard today
as
well.
"The winner
today was not
just George W. Bush. It was the Republican Party and our great ideas.
It
was the democratic process. This is the great festival of democracy
that
we participated in today. I want you to know that I know this is just
the
beginning. I have a lot of work to do. But the victory today in Iowa
put
me on the road to earning the nomination of the Republican Party.
"I appreciate
all of you
who took time out of your lives to come here to Ames. I’m most
grateful.
Thank you very much and God bless you all."